Incident type 2 diabetes
Evidence basis: observational studies (association, not proof of cause)
Every three servings a week of whole fruit was associated with 2 percent lower type 2 diabetes risk, while the same increment of fruit juice was associated with 8 percent higher risk.
Population: Adults free of major chronic disease at baseline in three US health-professional cohorts (187,382 participants, 3,464,641 person-years, 12,198 incident type 2 diabetes cases) plus 23 prospective cohorts in the dose-response synthesis.
Research details
Summary
In three prospective US cohorts — 66,105 women from the Nurses' Health Study, 85,104 women from Nurses' Health Study II and 36,173 men from the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study, contributing 3,464,641 person-years and 12,198 incident type 2 diabetes cases — the pooled hazard ratio per three servings a week was 0.98 (95% CI 0.97 to 0.99) for total whole fruit consumption and 1.08 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.11) for the same increment of fruit juice. With mutual adjustment, individual whole fruits ranged from 0.74 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.83) for blueberries, 0.88 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.93) for grapes and raisins and 0.93 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.96) for apples and pears, to 1.10 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.18) for cantaloupe, and the associations differed significantly between individual fruits. A separate dose-response synthesis of 23 cohorts reported a summary relative risk for type 2 diabetes of 0.93 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.97) for high versus low fruit intake and inverse associations for apples, apples and pears, blueberries, grapefruit and grapes and raisins, with positive associations for fruit juice and fruit drinks.
Why this certainty
Rated Moderate. Three large cohorts with repeated dietary measures produce a precise, mutually adjusted contrast in the same participants using the same increment, which is a stronger design than comparing separate studies of fruit and juice, and an independent synthesis of 23 cohorts reproduces both the inverse fruit association and the positive juice association. Certainty is held below Strong because the design is still observational, the whole-fruit effect size is very small, the form contrast is partly explained by ascertainment bias in the wider literature, and one pooled analysis of the same question found the juice association to be null.
Limitations
The evidence is observational and the contrast between forms is not randomised, so people who drink juice rather than eat fruit differ in weight, activity and overall diet in ways that adjustment may not fully capture. Fruit juice is also easy to misreport, and the cohorts measured diet by food-frequency questionnaire, so some juice may be recorded as fruit or vice versa. The 2 percent difference per three weekly servings of whole fruit is small in absolute terms, and the direction was not uniform across fruits — cantaloupe was associated with higher risk. A pooled analysis of four cohorts found no association between 100 percent fruit juice and diabetes (RR 1.03; 95% CI 0.91 to 1.18), and a broader analysis of 17 cohorts found that the fruit juice association became non-significant in studies that ascertained type 2 diabetes objectively, which is the strongest argument that part of this signal is measurement artefact rather than effect. The same pooled analysis of four cohorts found sugar-sweetened fruit juice significantly associated with higher type 2 diabetes risk (RR 1.28, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.59, p = 0.02), so the null result applies to 100 percent juice without added sugar rather than to fruit drinks in general.
Effect estimate
Type 2 diabetes hazard ratio 0.98 (95% CI 0.97 to 0.99) per three servings a week of whole fruit versus 1.08 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.11) for the same increment of fruit juice.
- Fruit consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes: results from three prospective longitudinal cohort studies.
- Consumption of sugar sweetened beverages, artificially sweetened beverages, and fruit juice and incidence of type 2 diabetes: systematic review, meta-analysis, and estimation of population attributable fraction
- Intake of fruit juice and incidence of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
- Fruit and vegetable consumption and the risk of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of prospective studies.
