Body weight and BMI
Evidence basis: randomised trials
Randomised trials found adding breakfast did not aid weight loss, while observational studies associate later eating patterns with higher BMI.
Population: Adults in high-income countries in the randomised trials (13 trials in the breakfast meta-analysis, seven trials with 425 participants and mean duration 8.6 weeks in the second). Adults and elderly in the observational studies: 21,020 Brazilian adults in the survey analysis, plus nine prospective studies of which five entered the observational meta-analyses.
Research details
Summary
The randomised and observational halves of this outcome point in opposite directions for the breakfast component. In a systematic review and meta-analysis of 13 randomised controlled trials in high-income countries, seven examined the effect of eating breakfast on weight change and ten on energy intake; meta-analysis found a small difference in weight favouring participants who skipped breakfast (mean difference 0.44 kg, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.82) with some inconsistency (I2 = 43%), and participants assigned to breakfast had a higher total daily energy intake (mean difference 259.79 kcal/day, 78.87 to 440.71; I2 = 80%). All included trials were at high or unclear risk of bias in at least one domain and follow-up was short (mean seven weeks for weight). A second meta-analysis of seven randomised trials in adults found that, compared with breakfast consumption, breakfast skipping significantly reduced body weight (WMD -0.54 kg, 95% CI -1.05 to -0.03, P = 0.04, I2 = 21.4%) but increased LDL cholesterol (WMD 9.24 mg/dL, 95% CI 2.18 to 16.30, P = 0.01), with no significant differences in percent body fat, blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, C-reactive protein, insulin, fasting glucose, leptin, HOMA-IR or ghrelin. On the observational side, in 21,020 Brazilian adults from the 2008-2009 survey, later first food intake time (beta = 0.65, 95% CI 0.37-0.93), later last food intake time (beta = 0.40, 95% CI 0.14-0.66), later eating midpoint (beta = 0.61, 95% CI 0.34-0.88) and calories consumed after 21:00 (beta = 0.74, 95% CI 0.32-1.16) and 22:00 (beta = 0.75, 95% CI 0.18-1.32) were all positively associated with BMI. An observational meta-analysis of prospective studies found an 11% increased relative risk for overweight/obesity when breakfast was skipped on three or more days per week (95% CI 1.04-1.19, two studies), but no difference in BMI change (beta = -0.02; 95% CI -0.05, 0.01; two studies).
Why this certainty
Rated Limited because the randomised and observational evidence disagree on the breakfast component, the randomised trials are short and at high or unclear risk of bias, and the observational associations are open to confounding and reverse causation. It is not rated Very limited because there are multiple randomised trials on breakfast and body weight, and two large independent observational datasets on later eating and BMI that agree with each other. It cannot reach Moderate because no retrieved trial tested whether shifting the whole eating pattern earlier causes weight loss in a free-living population.
Limitations
The randomised trials were short (mean seven weeks for weight, two weeks for energy intake) and all were at high or unclear risk of bias in at least one domain, so the authors themselves said the findings should be interpreted with caution. The trials tested adding breakfast to the routines of people who did not habitually eat it, which is not the same as the observational contrast between habitual breakfast eaters and skippers. The observational data are cross-sectional or prospective cohort and cannot establish causation; people who eat late may differ systematically in shift work, sleep, income and health status. The observational meta-analysis rested on only two studies for each pooled estimate, and the systematic review of 153 articles on eating behaviours found only small or inconsistent evidence for irregular meals and excess weight.
Effect estimate
Breakfast versus no breakfast for weight change in 7 randomised trials: mean difference 0.44 kg (95% CI 0.07 to 0.82) favouring skipping breakfast, with daily energy intake 259.79 kcal/day higher (95% CI 78.87 to 440.71) in the breakfast group (Sievert 2019). Breakfast skipping versus consumption in 7 randomised trials (n = 425): WMD -0.54 kg (95% CI -1.05 to -0.03) for weight and +9.24 mg/dL (95% CI 2.18 to 16.30) for LDL cholesterol (Bonnet 2020).
- Effect of breakfast on weight and energy intake: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.
- Breakfast Skipping, Body Composition, and Cardiometabolic Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Trials.
- Association between Breakfast Skipping and Body Weight-A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Longitudinal Studies.
- Is time of eating associated with BMI and obesity? A population-based study.
- Selected eating behaviours and excess body weight: a systematic review.
- The Effect of Early Time-Restricted Eating vs Later Time-Restricted Eating on Weight Loss and Metabolic Health.
