All-cause mortality
Evidence basis: observational studies (association, not proof of cause)
Pooled cohort data link higher residential greenness to about 4% lower all-cause mortality per 0.1 NDVI increase.
Population: Nine longitudinal cohort studies with 8,324,652 participants from seven countries in the pooled analysis; twelve studies with populations from 1,645 to over 43 million in the earlier review; studies included in a systematic review of urban green space; modelled population of Philadelphia adults in a health impact assessment.
Research details
Summary
A systematic review and meta-analysis of nine cohort studies covering 8,324,652 individuals from seven countries found that the pooled hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 0.96 (95% CI 0.94-0.97) per increment of 0.1 NDVI within a buffer of 500 m or less of a participant's residence. Seven of the nine studies found a significant inverse relationship while two found no association, and heterogeneity was very high (I2 = 95%). An earlier systematic review of twelve studies in North America, Europe and Oceania, with populations ranging from 1,645 to more than 43 million individuals, found that most studies showed reduced cardiovascular mortality in greener areas but that evidence for all-cause mortality was more limited and no benefit was seen for lung cancer mortality. A systematic review of urban green space and health likewise found a consistent negative association with mortality, and a modelled health impact assessment estimated that 403 premature deaths (95% interval 298-618) could be prevented annually in Philadelphia if the city met its 30% tree canopy cover goal (Kondo 2020).
Why this certainty
This rests on very large, geographically diverse prospective cohorts with a consistent direction in seven of nine studies and a precise pooled estimate, which is why it is rated Moderate rather than Limited. It cannot be rated Strong because the evidence is entirely observational, the heterogeneity is extreme, the exposure is residential rather than behavioural, and confounding by socioeconomic position is not fully addressed in any of the retrieved sources.
Limitations
All of the pooled evidence is observational and exposure is residential greenness, not time actually spent outdoors, so it measures where people live rather than what they do. Heterogeneity is extreme (I2 = 95%), which means the pooled estimate averages over studies that disagree, and the exposure contrast (0.1 NDVI) is not something an individual can choose for themselves. Residual confounding by income, education, housing quality and neighbourhood selection is a serious concern in this literature, and the authors of the earlier review call for cohort studies with better covariate data and improved green space assessment. The health impact assessment is a modelled projection rather than an observed effect.
Effect estimate
Pooled HR 0.96 (95% CI 0.94-0.97) for all-cause mortality per 0.1 NDVI increase within 500 m
