Major cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularisation, cardiovascular death)
Evidence basis: randomised trials
Two large long-term randomized trials in different populations point the same way.
Population: Adults at high cardiovascular risk but free of cardiovascular disease at baseline (PREDIMED: 55-80 years, 57% women, Spain) and patients with established coronary heart disease (CORDIOPREV: mean age 59.5 years, 82.5% men), plus 38 prospective cohorts and 2 further RCTs in a pooled analysis that included people with diabetes.
Research details
Summary
Two large long-term randomized trials in different populations point the same way. In PREDIMED (7447 high-risk adults without cardiovascular disease, median 4.8 years), the revised 2018 analysis found fewer major cardiovascular events with a Mediterranean diet plus extra-virgin olive oil (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.91) or plus nuts (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.95) than with a reduced-fat control diet. In CORDIOPREV (1002 patients with established coronary heart disease, 7 years), the Mediterranean diet beat a low-fat diet for the composite endpoint (adjusted HR 0.719 to 0.753). Pooled cohort data from populations that include people with diabetes agree in direction (stroke incidence RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.90; CHD incidence RR 0.73, 0.62 to 0.86).
Why this certainty
Rated Moderate rather than Strong: direction is consistent across two large randomized trials and multiple cohort syntheses, and PREDIMED survival was robust to excluding non-compliant participants, but only one large primary-prevention RCT exists, it carries acknowledged randomization problems, CORDIOPREV was small and sex-imbalanced, and the Cochrane review rated related clinical-event evidence low quality. Relevance is high because these are hard clinical endpoints, not surrogates.
Limitations
PREDIMED is the single dominant primary-prevention trial and required re-analysis after documented protocol deviations at 2 of 11 sites, 1588 participants being excluded in a sensitivity analysis. CORDIOPREV was single-centre with only 175 women and showed no benefit in women. Both trials used an active comparator diet rather than no intervention, so the estimate is relative. No second large primary-prevention RCT has replicated the composite endpoint.
Effect estimate
PREDIMED 2018 republication: HR 0.69 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.91) for Mediterranean diet with extra-virgin olive oil and HR 0.72 (95% CI 0.54 to 0.95) for Mediterranean diet with nuts versus control, median follow-up 4.8 years. CORDIOPREV: multivariable-adjusted HRs ranged from 0.719 (95% CI 0.541-0.957) to 0.753 (95% CI 0.568-0.998) over 7 years.
- Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease with a Mediterranean Diet Supplemented with Extra-Virgin Olive Oil or Nuts.
- Long-term secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease with a Mediterranean diet and a low-fat diet (CORDIOPREV): a randomised controlled trial.
- Mediterranean diet, cardiovascular disease and mortality in diabetes: A systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies and randomized clinical trials.
- Mediterranean-style diet for the primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease.
- Retraction and Republication: Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease with a Mediterranean Diet. N Engl J Med 2013;368:1279-90.

